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The Case for Copper

From 2016 to 2020 copper prices lived between US$5–6.5k. The 2021 squeeze lifted the floor. 2022–24 were a grind, not a collapse.

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2025 was the break. Tight concentrates, Chilean grade decline, and tariff-driven inventory shifts pushed the largest yearly gain in 16 years.

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2026 has held the highs — records near US$14,500/t — because mine disruptions (Grasberg, Chile) arrived on top of that tighter base.

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Demand Base demand amplified by emerging global trends.

  • Population growth

  • Urbanisation

  • Industrialisation

  • Rising living standards

Traditional

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  • Renewable power

  • Electric vehicles

  • Industry electrification

  • Grid build-out and storage

Energy Transition

Retro Futuristic Cityscape

  • AI and data centres

  • Onshoring of supply chains

  • Strategic stockpiles

  • Rearmament

Emerging

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Supply Three Geos constraining growth.

  • Declining copper grades

  • Few new discoveries

  • Exploration has not replaced depletion

Geological

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  • Deeper mines and block caves

  • Longer build times and higher capex

  • A new mine is a decade-scale decision

Geotechnical

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  • Security of supply and resource nationalism

  • Rising geopolitical tensions

  • Tariffs, permitting and social licence

Geopolitical

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